BAKU.06.08.2004.MEDIA-PRESS: The world economy depends on oil. However there are not usual answers at fundamental question - when will oil supplies be over. The history shows that many ultra-pessimistic as well as ultra-optimistic forecasts of experts were not justified in the major number of cases, the analythical material published on the site of the international information agency The Washington ProFile reports.
Oil as energy carrier is not anything uncial. Earlier coal was the main energy source and a crude for chemical industry. Still in 1780-s forecasts on exhausting of the European coal shafts appeared. However, in 21st century significant supplies of coal are on the territory of the Western Europe and nobody develops them, because this is not profitable.
In 1875 the first forecast on the world oil supplies has appeared. Mr. Jon Newberry, the chief geologist of the state Ohayo made it. He has declared that the world oil supplies will be over soon. In 1880-s top-manager of the largest oil company of this period Standard Oil sold his own shares of the company as he has concluded that oil is over.
In 1973 the analyst of the State Department of the USA Mr. James Akins has published the book "The OIL Crisis:The Time Is Wolf is Here", where he made quite pessimistic forecast on the world oil supplies". In 1975 the Research Center The Club of Rome declared that humanity will reach maximum level of production in 2003. In 1979 the President of the USA Mr. Jimmy Carter has declared on a base predictions of the CIA has declared that the wells in the world have showed the bottom.
Mr. Colin J. Campbell, the author of the book "The Coming Oil Crisis", which was published in 2003 proves that the highest level of the period of opening of the new oil fields was reached in 1960-s. Since this period the humanity consumes more oil than opens new supplies. This, by opinion of Mr. Cambell, proves that the world slowly, but rightly moves to the colossal oil crisis, which is able to destroy economics of all countries. In 2003 the International Energy Agency has forecasted that up to 2030 the oil production will be reduced in the whole world excepting the Persian Gulf where it will grow. The highest level of the world production will be reached in 2010. The International Energy Agency supposes that there are approximately 1 trln tons of oil on fields unopened for the present and 70% of this crude is outside of the Middle East.
By the data of the research conducted by the company the British Petroleum, the situation is heavier much: explored oil supplies of Canada, Vietnam and the Great Britain at the present rates of the production must be over six years, Norway - in 8 years; the USA - in 11 years; Turkmenistan - in 12 years; Russia - 19 years; Kazakhstan - in 27 years; Azerbaijan - in 61 years; Mexico - in 21 years; Nigeria - in 30; Qatar - in 55; The fields of the Saudi Arabia should be sufficient for 85 years; the UAE - for 114 years; Kuwait - 127; Iraq - for 128 years. By data of the American Petroleum Institute, 95% of available oil sources in the world will be exhausted in the next 56 years, the rest 5% will exhaust in 88 years. Thus the human world has maximum 30 - 50 years for replacing of oil.
By estimates of the expert of energy Mr. Vaslav Smil, the world oil supplies are strictly limited. By his accounts, the developed oil fields contain 850 bn barrels plus 150 bn bbl are in the fields already explored. Thus, the world oil supplies of oil will scarcely exceed 1 trln bbl - this only approximately fifth part of the oil volume already used by the humanity. In accordance with this forecast, in a case if some method of sharp oil economy will not be found the world supplies will be sufficient for more than several ten years. For comparison: the world supplies of coal are estimated in 1 trln tons at the present level of consumption it must be sufficient for 230 years.
The group of scientists entering to the organization "Association For the Study of Peak Oil" have concluded that oil production peak in the world will be reached in 2008. The leader of the organization Mr. Kjel Alekletti operates the following comparison: For all the time of the commercial oil consumption the humanity "has drunk" nine "glasses". Now peace consumes 1 glass of oil per annum. Approximately 9 or 10 glasses stay in freezer that means they stay in explored fields. Nobody knows, how much oil is hidden into depth of the Earth. Mr. Alekletti believes that there are no more than three ones.
However, forecasts quite often appeared far from reality. By information of the professor Mikle Adelman, the employee of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, in 1970 the explored oil reserves of the countries of the OPEC was estimated by a volume of 412 bn bbl. By 2003 they produced 307 bn bbl and their explored reserves are estimated by 819 bn. Just then the state, which did not join to the OPEC, produced 460 bn and their supplies now are estimated by a volume of 209 bn. Mr. Adelman believes that errors in forecasts are explained by lack of knowledge. For example, a quarter of century ago technologies have not allowed oil production from the marine fields, the depth exceeding 500 meters. Now oil is produced from depths of 4 - 5 km.
The US Department of Energy publishes annually forecast on perspectives of different kinds of energy. In the report of 2004 analyzing the situation, which may be formed by 2025, it is confirmed particularly that the world prices for oil will grow gradually, however rates of the growth will not exceed ones registered during last tens years. In 2010 the world prices for oil will vary within ranges $16.36 per barrel up to $32.80. In 2025 - $16.49 - $34.90.
The state of the world prices for oil will certainly affect on rates of the production of fields being used and development of new ones. For example, at low prices for oil it will be unprofitable for oil companies to produce oil from small offshore fields. Oil consumption depends also on the technical progress, which allows operate more successfully available fields, process and consume oil more economically.
For example, the technology of "horizontal drilling" (the drilling is done not only "from top to bottom", but also to the side) allows produce 50 - 60% of available oil - in distinction from 35%, which may be produced at using usual technologies. If similar technologies are developed successfully and used, oil consumption will remain on the former level or even reduce slightly. Moreover, there are some perspective technologies of artificial oil production, The Washington ProFile notes.

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