IN 2004 KAZAKHSTAN, AZERBAIJAN AND TURKMENISTAN WILL BE LEADERS BY ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES IN ASIA
BAKU.10.05.2004.MEDIA-PRESS:
The Asian Development Bank has submitted annual analytical report on perspectives of the development of the Asian countries for 2004 - 2005 years after the other international finance institutions the ERDB and ICF.
BAKU.10.05.2004.MEDIA-PRESS:
The expensive oil has stopped the economic growth in Russia. As experts note, Russia continues to grow the oil export (for January - April of 2004 it has grown up by 23.8% in comparison with the analogous period of the past year) and seems to stand on threshold of "gold century". However the Kremlin troubles are mainly within frameworks of macroeconomic situation. Else on April 19 on the sitting of the government the Minster of the Economic Development and Trade Mr. German Gref told to Vladimir Putin that the industrial growth in the country stopped. By his words, on March it made 0% to February and the GDP growth made 0.1%, the "Commersant" informs.
And this occurred when prices for oil were not maximum: they accurately executed an objective of twice increase of the Russian GDP. High prices for oil earn oil dollars for the country and strengthen the Russian currency, the expert say. Growth in Russia for past four years took place on the background of its strengthening, however it is not permanent engine. The strengthening of ruble brings to closeness of internal and external prices (in dollars), and this certainly stops inner growth. By some estimates, critical level was achieved on January 2004. Increase of course of evro to dollar promoted to the Russian economic growth - ruble does not strengthened so surely to basket of currencies. And as soon ruble stopped for a month on Febuary - March at a level of 28.5 rubles and then devaluated some later, the growth stopped, the newspaper notes.
BAKU.10.05.2004.MEDIA-PRESS:
The realization of the large transport project "Marmara", which provides the construction of the tunnel under the strait Bosphorus and connection of Asia and Europe by means of railway started yesterday in Turkey.
BAKU.10.05.2004.MEDIA-PRESS:
The European Reconstruction and Development Bank have expressed a readiness for allocation of credit to the SOCAR for financing its share in the project of the development of the largest gas field "Shakh-Deniz" in the Caspian Sea.
BAKU.10.05.2004.MEDIA-PRESS:
For four months of 2004 Azerbaijan has imported 1.728 bn cubic meters of gas, 407 MM cubic meters of which were produced on April. Totally, since April average deliveries reduced from 16 MM cubic meters up to 12 - 13 MM cubic meters.
BAKU.10.05.2004.MEDIA-PRESS:
There is not any preparation for foundation of "gas OPEC" with participation of the "countries-gas producers". The Minister of Oil of Iran Mr. Bijan Zangane has declared this in the interview to the agency ILNA.
BAKU.10.05.2004.MEDIA-PRESS:
The Japanese Consortium JAOC (Japan Azerbaijan Operating Company), which decided to refuse of the further realization of the project of the development of the perspective structure "Atesshgyakh - Yanan Tava - Mugan-Deniz has paid out the relevant compensation by a total of $4 MM to the SOCAR of Azerbaijan. The President of the SOCAR Mr. Natiq Aliyev has informed the journalists about this.
BAKU.10.05.2004.MEDIA-PRESS:
The next round of negotiations on joining of Kazakhstan to the project of the construction of the Main Exporting Pipeline Baku - Tbilisi - Ceyhan (MEP BTC) will take place in the end of May, the President of the State Company of Azerbaijan Mr. Natiq Aliyev has informed.
By his words, the intergovernmental agreement is ready in practice. Its signing is expected in the next time. However, up to date there are some problems, in the first turn associated with ratifying of this agreement by the Kazakhstan parliament. Astana does not want to make this step, as further other oil companies operating in this country may demand the same procedure. So Mr. N. Aliyev does not exclude that the most difficult problems may be solved only on the highest level.
BAKU.10.05.2004.MEDIA-PRESS:
The Company SADRA has managed to start the production of oil tankers by deadweight of 4800 t in the Caspian Sea. The Director of the Company Mr. Jalil Khabare has said to the agency Mehr in the interview.
BAKU.10.05.2004.MEDIA-PRESS:
The last unexpected growth of prices for oil is associated mainly with the instability factor in the Middle East, the experts of oil in the region consider.
By the opinion of analysts of the ADB, an annual growth of the GDP in Kazakhstan will make 9.5% in next two years, and this is provided by "conscious macroeconomic policy".
By forecasts, a high rate of growth will be kept as well in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. As the constant official of the ADB in Kazakhstan, Mr. Kazukhiko Khiguchi has noted, oil and gas sector will remain a chief factor of the GDP growth. This optimistic forecast has been made on a base of high world prices for oil and gas. And though their some reduction is expected in the next year, this negative factor "may be compensated by a growth of oil and gas growth".
By the information of the ADB, just Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan will become leaders by rates of the economic growth in the region. So in accordance with forecasts a growth of the GDP in Azerbaijan will make 9% in 2004, 12.5% in 2005 and 10% in Turkmenistan.
At the same time in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kirghizstan, where crude sector does not play in the development of the national economy, more restrained of the GDP will be observed: within 4.2 - 8% in 2004 and then 4 - 5%.
By the words, experts of the ADB do not intend to amplify significance oil and gas sector. Particularly, they note efforts of the government on diversification of economy, improvement of financing policy, foundation of new job places.
THE EXPENSIVE OIL HAS STOPPED THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN RUSSIA
TURKEY HAS STARTED THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE TUNNEL UNDER BOSPHORUS
On the ceremony devoted to this case the Premier-Minister of Turkey Mr. Rajab Erdogan has based a symbolic stone in the base of the construction, which will cost $2.5 bn. It is planned to complete this project in 2008. For realization of this project, which is financed by the government of Japan, the consortium "Evrasia" including four Turkish and Japanese companies was founded. The Japanese International Cooperation Bank allocated a credit on very profitable conditions. This bank financed the construction of metropolitan branch in Istanbul.
The underwater section of the tunnel under Bosphorus by a length of 1.3 km will become a constant part of 70 km railway and land metro, which will connect two extreme points of Istanbul in Europe and Asia - Khalkali and Gebze.
The project "Marmara" provides the construction of the tunnel, which includes by six railways in both directions. This allows transportation of 150 thou passengers during a hour.
The realization of the project will have a great meaning not only for Turkey, but Europe and Asia, as it will provide the transportation of men and cargos without interruption. It will have especial meaning for 11 MM populated Istanbul, where transport locks are one of the biggest problems.
THE ERDB IS READY FOR ALLOCATION OF CREDIT FOR FINANCING OF A SHARE OF THE SOCAR IN THE PROJECT OF DEVELOPMENT OF GAS FIELD "SHAKH-DENIZ"
As the President of the SOCAR Mr. Natiq Aliyev has informed the journalists, the agreement on allocation of the credit is ready, and it should be signed only. He has noted as well that a total of the credit will make about $170 MM.
In autumn of the past year the official of the management of the ERDB Mrs. Sharlotta Phillips has declared that the ERDB plans to allocate a credit by a total of $200 MM for financing of 10% share of the SOCAR in the project "Shakh-Deniz".
Mrs. Philips has declared as well that the SOCAR has submitted whole package of documents on the project "Shakh-Deniz" to the ERDB and it will be considered publicly. Approval of the credit will take place supposedly in 2004.
We shall remind that to date a realization of the "Stage-1" of the development of the gas condensate field "Shakh-Deniz" by a cost of $3.2 bn is being conducted. It includes the installation of the platform by 15 wells on the sea depth of 105 km, the construction of two underwater pipelines by a length of 100 km each one, from the platfom to the Sangachal terminal and as well as the construction of the South-Caucasus gas pipeline Baku - Tbilisi - Erzurum.
"Phase-1" provides production of 178 bn cubic meters of gas and 34 MM tons of condensate per annum. The maximum production makes 8.4 bn cubic meters of gas and 2 MM tons of condensate per annum In the further phases of the development it is supposed to produce about 16 bn cubic meters per annum.
BP(25.5%), Statoil (25.5%), the SOCAR (10%), LUKAgip (10%), OIEC (10%), TotalFinalElf (10%) and TRAO (9%) are shareholders of the project "Shakh-Deniz".
FOR FOUR MONTHS OF 2004 AZERBAIJAN IMPORTED 1.728 BN CUBIC METERS OF GAS
Earlier the company "Itera" purchased gas. This year "Gazprom" replaced "Itera" and plans to deliver 2.75 bn cubic meters of natural gas to Azerbaijan. Moreover, else one agreement has been signed between the SOCAR and CJC "KazRosGaz" on deliveries of 4.5 bn cubic meters to Azerbaijan in the current year.
"KazRosGaz" has started gas deliveries since January of the current year. The SOCAR purchases the Kazakhstan gas by a total of $52 for 1 thousand cubic meters. The annual demand of the Azerbaijan market in the import gas makes about 6 bn cubic meters.
MR. BIJAN ZANGANE: THERE IS NOT ANY PREPARATION FOR FOUNDATION OF "GAS OPEC"
By his words, objectives of meetings between countries producing gas are limited by discussions on determining prices for gas being exported. At the present time the preparation for foundation of some organization structures like the OPEC, which would be engaged in working out joint position and determination of quotas on "the blue fuel" production and export is not conducted principally, the Iranian Minister has emphasized.
THE JAPANESE CONSORTIUM JAOC HAS PAID OUT THE COMPENSATION TO THE SOCAR FOR REFUSAL OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRUCTURE "ATESHGYAKH - YANAN TAVA - MUGAN-DENIZ"
As Media-Press had informed, the consortium including four Japanese companies failed in the first exploration well on the area "Yanan-Tava". For high stratum pressure the sinking was broken still before reaching the project depth. And after the drilling of the second exploration well JAOC announced that the revealed oil supplies are not profitable. After this the Japanese completed all operations on the project and closed their office in Baku.
The SOCAR agreed in a whole with the decision of the JAOC on leaving the project, nevertheless it regards that the Japanese did not execute their liabilities to the PSA. Disagreements of the former partners are explained by various approaches to the results of drilling of the first (uncompleted) exploration well. The officials of the SOCAR regard that if the drilling had not reached the project depth, this means that one of the contract conditions had not been executed. As the President of the SOCAR Mr. N. Aliyev declared, the Production Sharing Agreement provided that each drilled well should operate in accordance with its geological nomination and this occurs just then when the project depth and horizon open.
The State Oil Company already had met with the similar situation when the foreign company refused of continuation of the exploration of the perspective field. For example, the French TotalFinaElf had been forced to pay out the monetary compensation to the SOCAR by a total of $20 MM for the refusal of drilling of the second exploration well on the block "Lankaran - Talish-Deniz".
The contract for the exploration and development of the structure "Ateshgyakh - Yanan Tava - Mugan-Deniz" was signed between the SOCAR (50%) and the Japanese companies Itochu Oil (7.5%), Japex (22.5%), Teikoku (7.5%) and Inpex (12.5%) on December of 1998. The operation company JAOC was created on May 1999.
The contract area is situated in the coastal zone in the southern-western area of the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian Sea. The total area of the block makes about 500 sq.km. The sea depth makes 50 - 100 meters. The investments to the given project should make $2.3 bn. The supposed supplies of the hydrocarbons make 80 MM tons.
ASTANA DOES NOT WISH RATIFYING THE AGREEMENT ON JOINING OF KAZAKHSTAN TO THE MEP BAKU - TBILISI - CEYHAN BY THE PARLIAMENT OF THE COUNTRY
Earlier it was conjectured to complete the negotiations up to the end of 2003 for giving the project of the agreement for consideration of both the countries. After signing of this agreement, investors of the transport system Aktau - Baku and governments of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will sign transit agreements..
The creation of the system Aktau - Baku supposes the construction of the new terminal for keeping and transshipment of oil in Kurik (the port in 76 km to the south-east from Aktau) and as well the connection pipelines. The capacity of the system on the transshipment would make 20 MM tons of oil annually; up to 7.5 MM tons would be delivered on the first stage. The volume of investments would be determined after singning the intergovernmental agreement. For managing the system Aktau - Baku the separate company would be founded and four companies would invest it: the Italian Eni, French TotalFinalElf, American ConocoPhilips and Japanese Inpex, which take part in the project of the development of Kazakhstan field "Kashagan" and having 15% of sharing in the company BTC Co.
The length of the MEP makes 1767 km and 443 of them pass through the territory of Azerbaijan, 248 km - through the territory of Georgia, 1076 km - through the territory of Turkey. The capacity of the pipeline makes 50 MM tons of oil in a year.
The construction works started on April 2003 and will be completed in the fourth quarter of 2004. The Azerbaijan oil export from the port Ceyhan (Turkey) is planned by the second quarter 2005.
BP (30,1%), the SOCAR (25%), Unocal (8,9%), Statoil (8,71%), TPAO (6,53%), ENI (5%), Itochu (3,4%), ConocoPhillips (2,5%), INPEX (2,5%), TotalFinaElf (5%) and Amerada Hess (2,36%) are the shareholders of the project.
IRAN HAS STARTED TO BUILD TANKERS AND OIL PLATFORMS IN THE CASPIAN SEA
By his words, up to date Iran has been obliged to deliver purchased tankers in the Caspian Sea by the Volga-Don Channel, receiving the relevant admittance from Russia. And a lot of problems emerged then for both so-called the first channel is ice-bound during a long time and significant expenditures were required as this is a single water way. Moreover, there are a number of serious limitations on weight of ships delivered to the Caspian Sea.
Mr. Jalil Khabare has informed that during visit of the President of Iran to port Neka the construction of the first dry dock for the construction of three oil tankers by deadweight of 63 thou tons of each one has started. They will travel in the Caspian Sea and thus the transportation of oil from the other Caspian countries through Iran will be carried out more quickly and less expenditures.
Mr. Jalil Khabare has called the construction of offshore oil platforms as one else important project of the Company SADRA in the Caspian Sea and this has a great economic and political significance, by his words. After the completion of the construction of the platform "Alborz" the production of else one platform, which would be able to drill wells by a depth up to 6 thou m at sea depth up to 1 km starts.
THE FACTOR OF INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST HAVE BEEN A CAUSE OF THE LAST GROWTH FOR OIL, THE EXPERTS CONSIDER
As the Kuwait Information Agency KUNA informs, by the opinion of the experts, oil markets are very sensible to the psychological factor: fears of producers and consumers. In such conditions they instantly react on this by variation of their prices as like recently when a price of the American oil jumped up to $40 for bbl.
Recent terrorist actions in Yanbo, the largest oil-processing center of the Saudi Arabia, an effort of blasting oil objects in Basra (Iraq) have directly affected on growth in oil prices for significant role of these countries in the common world production and supplies of "the black gold", the experts affirm.
The Middle East has 60% of total world oil supplies. And the Saudi Arabia with its supplies by 263 bn bbl is the first and Iraq with 115 bn bbl is the next. Expectedly, this rate will grow after conduction of new exploration works.
By the works of one of the analysts, the present price of "fear and irritability" makes $6 - $8 for barrel. If this "addition for fear" is kept back and dollar is not let to reduce, a price for one bbl will reduce up to average usual rate, the expert thinks.
Meanwhile there is another point of view. As an expert in energy the Switzerland senator Mr. Rudold Reksteiner thinks, predictions on growth in prices for oil are extremely reduced. Indeed, "the black gold" wil cost no less $60 - 70 in the next time.
Similar declarations are made on background of the information that oil price on the New-York goods-crude barge achieved a level by $39.97 and even overcame $40 for barrel. This exceeds rates of period of beginning of conflict in the Persian Gulf.
"A major number of analysts use incorrect methods in estimating the problem, - Mr. Rudolf Reckshteiner has declared in the interview to Tagblatt. They overestimate capacities of present existing fields and surprise very much when they are exhausted. He notes that reduction of oil production as well rapid growth in prices for oil in China and India will promote to the growth in prices.
As the Swiss expert notes, Russia almost has achieved the maximum level of oil production. "The export of both the North Sea oil and the Mexican one will reduce in two times. There are only several regions, where it will increase: this is the Western Africa and Central Asia. The Saudi Arabia is under question", - Mr. Reksteiner thinks.
"A number of the countries-exporters is reduced constantly. Indonesia will stop oil export since the next year - all produced oil will be consumed inside of the country. The past year the Great Britain was obliged to import oil and gas. China, which exported oil ten years ago, has become its second world importer. Higher prices will become its logical consequence", - the expert believes.
By his word, the OPEC has persuaded the market that it may keep high price. Thus, for the present the market is oriented for high prices for oil, however only few ones forecast a degree of growth. "I account on more high prices - $60 - $70 for barrel", - Mr. Rekshteiner has said.
